Some people just shouldn’t make predictions

Because of the work I do, I often find myself being asked by friends and associates, “Who’s going to win the primary (or general) election?  What’s your prediction?”

I’m never very comfortable when I’m put on the spot to make one of these predictions for a very simple reason:  I stink at it.  I’m just not very good as a prognosticator.  Never have been.  The latest proof, if any is needed, was my feeling that John Oxendine, even though his poll support was slipping, would still make it into the GOP runoff for governor.

Shows how much I know.

Fortunately, I am not alone.  There are some other folks out there in the blogosphere who were making some bold predictions about the outcome of the July 20 elections and they got it just as wrong as I did.  I’m going to quote a few of my favorites.

From someone posting under the handle of “Dustin” at Georgia Liberal –

Porter and Poythress have both played an awesome ground game. Roy Barnes has had a top-heavy campaign. What I mean but that is he has raised money, put up commercials, and showed up to high-profile events. Porter and Poythress have been on the ground, knocking doors, and talking to the people. This, in part, has to do with turnout above. People are much more likely to turn-out if they are directly contacted by a candidate . . . when turnout is low, it is likely an advantage to those who have done the grassroots work.  Again, I am not saying we are going to see Roy Barnes crash and burn or anything. I am saying that I expect a runoff and I would not wager a bet on who will be going up against Barnes in it.

From “Ron Daniels” at Peach Pundit –

I’ve never given much though to DuBose actually winning, despite being endorsed by the team over at Georgia Liberal. And then the dots started connecting. The Porter Plan is to make it to the runoff, and then paint Barnes as the wheelin’ and dealin’ city slicker insider that does not care about the little guy. Ride the anti-incumbent wave. Tie Barnes with the Liberal Establishment of Washington, and hopefully grab enough votes to send him back to his faux-Governor’s Mansion in Marietta.  The vintage styled campaign materials to Porter’s populist tour of Georgia. It’s all a part of the plan and has been all along it seems.

The poster known as “Chris” on Peach Pundit wrote a thoughtful piece for that website that was headlined, “Why Karen Handel will not be the GOP nominee” –

Karen should be pushing an agenda of jobs, transportation, education and growth. Instead, because Georgians are a bunch of homophobes, she has to spend all her time trying to be more anti-gay than the walking indictment known as Ox, and the guy run out of congress on ethics violations.

In the process she has alienated those who would vote for her because she doesn’t care who you marry. The bigots were never going to vote for her anyway. They were gonna vote Deal and Ox. And if you’re a Deal or Ox supporters, you don’t care about a candidate’s ethics anyway, so she wouldn’t get their support in the Run-Off.

To win the Runoff, Karen had to show she was the one best qualified to Govern. And she still is the most qualified to govern. But because she’s spent the last few weeks on the defensive over issues that only matter to narrow-minded rednecks, she’s lost the support of the middle. And as anyone whose looked at a bell curve knows, the middle is bigger than the fringe.

A guy named “Frank Arden” wrote an op-ed column for the Savannah Morning News declaring that Eric Johnson would win the nomination and the general election because of his service in the General Assembly –

Johnson, with terms in the House and Senate, with leadership as president pro tem of the Senate, with campaign money equal to frontrunner Oxendine, and with a consistent conservative political bearing, is uniquely suited to surge ahead of Handel and Deal to enter a runoff with Oxendine.

And, suggested by history, Johnson will win that runoff against Oxendine – and probably defeat any Democrat, even Dubose Porter, in November.

He is a child of the Georgia General Assembly, the hidden dynamic of governors elected since 1962. The stars might be aligned for him in 2010.

Of course, it’s hard to top the predictions offered up on a regular basis by Erick Erickson over at Peach Pundit:

Thurbert Baker is going to issue a bunch of subpoenas and start a messy investigation of John Oxendine. His office already has the investigation started.

It seems there are a few insurance executives who are whispering in the background about gifts in exchange for rate increases among other things. At least two Insurance Commission workers have admitted to people outside the office that Oxendine ordered them to shred documents pertaining to messy issues. Then there is that phone call of a rather personal nature to make things even more salacious.

Baker intends to destroy Oxendine.

There’s a catch though — Baker won’t start up the investigation until the general election. I’ve had a few interesting conversations with people in the past two days about all of this. It is as you would expect. Baker is hoping to time this all to help the Democrats, and presumably himself should he be the nominee.

Don’t look for the media to do anything about this until the general election. They want Ox as the nominee too. In fact, one AJC reporter has lots already on this and is just sitting on this. But he isn’t the only one.

Tags: Eric Johnson , John Oxendine , karen handel , Nathan Deal

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