He allowed as to how he “didn’t do enough listening” when he was

governor (especially to the folks who tried to tell him that the

situation was looking bad for him in rural Georgia during that fateful

campaign).  Part of the reason was, as his mother used to tell him, “I

was the hardest-headed kid God put on the face of the Earth.”

“I realize I was impatient and I had an aggressive agenda,” Barnes said

at his Wednesday announcement in Marietta. “I didn’t take time to

explain why I thought certain issues were important or time-sensitive

and critical to make a Georgia that could be instead of a Georgia that

was.”

The words are true enough – Barnes’ challenge over the next 12 months

will be to persuade the voters that he really understands them and sees

the error of his ways.  Bill Clinton was able to do that in Arkansas

after losing the governorship and Barnes hopes to do the same thing

here (which would make him the first governor since his namesake,

Eugene Talmadge, to come back and win the governorship after being

ousted).

Although Barnes will probably be able to out-raise his competition and

win the Democratic primary, Georgia is a much more Republican state

than it was when he was elected governor in 1998.

Some may want to cite the results of last November’s general election

as a good omen for Democrats, when a record turnout of black voters

helped Barack Obama run a competitive race against John McCain for

Georgia’s electoral votes and enabled Jim Martin to push Republican

Sen. Saxby Chambliss into a runoff.

The turnout in 2008 (3.9 million total voters) was during a

presidential year, however.  Voter turnout always drops off markedly in

non-presidential years.  The turnout in the 2010 general election will

probably be much closer to the 2.1 million voters who cast ballots in

the December runoff last year – a smaller slice of the electorate where

the Republican vote tends to be heavier.  By way of comparison,

Chambliss led Martin by about 109,000 votes in the general election,

but expanded that winning margin to more than 318,000 votes in the Dec.

2 runoff.  Those numbers should give pause to any Democrat who plans to

run for statewide office.

Barnes has the ability to make it a competitive governor’s race, but

the Republican nominee (whoever that is) would still have to be considered to

have an edge, for the moment anyway

Back to Barnes’ announcement on Wednesday:  Bobby Kahn was nowhere to

be seen, but former Barnes aide Chris Carpenter was there.  That lends

some credence to speculation that Carpenter will be running this

campaign, or at least serving as the public face for it.